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As a result, Tatom concludes, the adverse effects of the oil price shock should be reversed almost as quickly as they occurred. In addition, Iraq felt Kuwait was overproducing oil, lowering prices and hurting Iraqi oil pr…

Real oil prices (in today’s real dollars) peaked above $43 per barrel in 1974 and to $82 in 1980, relative to $30 in 1990 and to $32 in 2000. July 1990 marked the end of what was at the time the longest peacetime economic expansion in U.S. history. Cite this article John A. Tatom, "The 1990 Oil Price Hike in Perspective," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review , November/December 1991, pp. 3-18. After Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, the spot price rose quickly, reaching about $28 a barrel on August 6.

The effects of the recent oil price shock on the U.S. and global economy Oil prices shocks have a stagflationary effect on the macroeconomy of an oil importing ... 1990 and 2000 shocks. The immediate cause of the recession was a loss of consumer and business confidence as a result of the 1990 oil price shock, coupled with an already weak economy. The spot market price, the price at which crude oil for near-term delivery is bought and sold, rose from an average of about $17 a barrel in June 1990 to almost $21 at the end of July. Key post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iran-Iraq War initiated in 1980, the first Persian Gulf War in 1990-91, and the oil price spike of 2007-2008.

While Iraq officially claimed Kuwait was stealing its oil via slant drilling, its true motives were more complicated and less clear. Negative oil price shocks account for about 8% of fluctuations in government spending, 20% of imports, 8% of inflation and 2% of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. On August 2, 1990, the Republic of Iraq invaded the State of Kuwait, leading to a seven-month occupation of Kuwait and an eventual U.S.-led military intervention. At the time of the invasion, Iraq owed Kuwait $14 billion of outstanding debt that Kuwait had loaned it during the 1980–1988 Iran–Iraq War. Effects.

The graph shows the estimated net (reduced form) effect of an oil price shock on output and prices, together with 90% statistical confidence intervals, from the mid-1970s until 1990.

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